Shubhransh Rai
May 19, 2025
免責聲明：本文是基於公開報告和市場趨勢的獨立分析，它基於我個人的在線研究。雖然我力求準確性，但金融環境瞬息萬變，可能會出現新資訊，這可能會證明我錯了，但我不是新聞專家。鼓勵讀者在得出結論之前驗證來自多個來源的詳細資訊。這不是財務或投資建議，只是對不斷發展的全球經濟的探索。
歷史上有些時刻並沒有用煙花來宣告自己。
相反，他們低聲警告。
它們以現金堆的形式出現。以 4 小時問答環節的形式。沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）坐在內布拉斯加州奧馬哈（Omaha， Nebraska）的舞臺上——他的聲音平靜，他的作品集完好無損，他的耐心比一千個頭條新聞都響亮。
Disclaimer: This article is an independent analysis based on publicly available reports and market trends, it is based on my personal online research. While I strive for accuracy, financial landscapes shift rapidly, and new information may emerge, which could prove me wrong, I’m not a journalism expert. Readers are encouraged to verify details from multiple sources before drawing conclusions. This is not financial or investment advice — just an exploration of the evolving global economy.
There are moments in history that don’t announce themselves with fireworks.
Instead, they whisper warnings.
They come in the form of cash piles. In the form of 4-hour Q&A sessions. In the form of Warren Buffett sitting on stage in Omaha, Nebraska — his voice calm, his portfolio untouched, his patience louder than a thousand headlines.
為什麼這位有史以來最具傳奇色彩的投資者坐擁 3500 億美元的現金？
這不是錯字。伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司（Berkshire Hathaway）將其總資產的近三分之一——準確地說是3480億美元——置於觀望狀態。幾乎全部以美國國庫券形式存在。
這是一個如此巨大的地位，以至於巴菲特幾乎可以收購任何現存的上市公司。並且仍然有數十億的甜品。
但他沒有買。
他一直在等待。
如果你在注意，你應該問自己一件事：
沃倫·巴菲特 （Warren Buffett） 到底看到了什麼？
Why is the most legendary investor of all time sitting on $350 billion in cash?
That’s not a typo. Berkshire Hathaway has parked nearly one-third of its total assets — $348 billion to be exact — on the sidelines. Almost entirely in U.S. Treasury bills.
It’s a position so massive that Buffett could buy almost any publicly traded company in existence. And still have billions left over for dessert.
But he hasn’t bought.
He’s waited.
And if you’re paying attention, you should be asking yourself one thing:
What the hell does Warren Buffett see coming?
巴菲特的行動總是比他的言語更有說服力。但今年的股東大會呢？它用擴音器說話。
巴菲特已經多年沒有進行過重大收購了。他最近的重大舉措包括削減他的蘋果頭寸並完全拋售其他股票。然而，本季度，即使是拋售也停止了。
現金儲備仍然在增長——不是來自銷售——而是來自利潤。
在一個癡迷於收益率的世界里，他將數十億美元的國庫券停放在了花生米中。
為什麼？
因為現在沒有更好的選擇可以為巴菲特提供他最看重的東西：確定性、安全性和選擇性。
當其他人都在交易頭條新聞時，他在玩持久戰。
正如他所說：“如果合適的機會出現，我們明天會花費 1000 億美元。但這個機會並不在這裡。
翻譯：暴風雨還沒有來。但它正在形成。
Buffett’s actions have always spoken louder than his words. But this year’s shareholder meeting? It spoke in megaphones.
Buffett hasn’t made a major acquisition in years. His last big moves involved trimming his Apple position and selling off other stocks entirely. This quarter, though, even the selling stopped.
The cash pile still grew — not from sales — but from profits.
In a world obsessed with yield, he’s parked billions in Treasury bills yielding peanuts.
Why?
Because there is no better alternative right now that offers Buffett what he values most: certainty, safety, and optionality.
He’s playing the long game while everyone else is trading headlines.
As he puts it: “We’d spend $100 billion tomorrow if the right opportunity came along. But that opportunity isn’t here.”
Translation: The storm hasn’t hit. But it’s forming.
社交媒體上流傳的圖片很可愛。
“如果巴菲特願意，他可以收購迪士尼、Netflix 甚至 Meta。”
但這不是這個遊戲的運作方式。
如果巴菲特想對一家市值 9000 億美元的公司有所行動，他需要以折扣價投資至少 500 億美元——並且可能將擁有權限制在 10% 以下，以避免引發監管麻煩。
這使他只能在全球的幾十家公司工作。其中大多數價格過高或已經擁有。
還剩下什麼呢？
誇大的估值。脆弱的基本面。市場情緒浮動在 hopium 上。
在巴菲特的世界里，這叫做：等待胖子的推銷。
他寧願從國庫券中賺取 5%，也不願在被高估的成長型股票上損失 20%。
因為當投球來時，你會用力揮杆。
The graphic floating around social media is cute.
“Buffett could buy Disney, Netflix, or even Meta if he wanted to.”
But that’s not how this game works.
If Buffett wants to move the needle on a $900 billion company, he needs to invest at least $50 billion at a discount — and likely cap ownership under 10% to avoid triggering regulatory hassles.
That limits him to just a couple dozen companies globally. Most of which are overpriced or already owned.
And what’s left?
Inflated valuations. Fragile fundamentals. Market sentiment floating on hopium.
In Buffett’s world, that’s called: waiting for the fat pitch.
He'd rather earn 5% from T-bills than lose 20% on overvalued growth stocks.
Because when the pitch comes, you swing hard.
那不是市場理論。
這是巴菲特的一句話。
而這些錯誤通常是一波又一波的。衰退。策略錯誤。當沒有人注意時，氣泡會破裂。
巴菲特對市場下跌 10-15% 並不感到恐慌。他稱之為 「噪音」。。但是當修正達到50%時呢？這就是億萬富翁行動的時候。
他之前曾見過伯克希爾下跌了三次。他不怕波動。他為此做好準備。
因為每個偉大的投資者都知道：長期趨勢是向上的。但每隔一段時間，市場就會免費贈送資金。
只有持有現金的人才能搶到它。
That’s not market theory.
That’s a Buffett quote.
And those mistakes usually come in waves. Recessions. Policy errors. Bubbles bursting when no one’s paying attention.
Buffett’s not panicked about the market dropping 10–15%. He calls that “noise.” But when the correction hits 50%? That’s when the billionaires move.
He's seen Berkshire fall by half three times before. He’s not scared of volatility. He prepares for it.
Because every great investor knows: the long-term trend is up. But every so often, the market gives away money for free.
And only those holding cash get to grab it.
這就是事情變得有趣的地方。
最近的市場下跌——從高點下跌了近 20%——甚至要到下個季度才會出現在伯克希爾的檔中。如果巴菲特真的採取行動，你不會知道，直到墨水幹了。
根據他在股東大會上的回應，他似乎沒有。
還沒有。
事實上，他完全淡化了這種下降。“自從我們收購伯克希爾以來，股價已經下跌了 3 次 50%。這不是其中之一。
譯本？
這不是崩潰。這隻是前戲。
Here’s where things get interesting.
The recent drop in markets — nearly 20% from highs — won’t even show up in Berkshire’s filings until the next quarter. If Buffett did make a move, you won’t know until the ink is dry.
And based on his response at the shareholder meeting, it doesn’t seem like he has.
Not yet.
In fact, he downplayed the drop entirely. “There have been three times since we acquired Berkshire that the stock went down 50%. This isn’t one of them.”
Translation?
This isn’t the crash. This is just foreplay.
巴菲特很少參與政治。
但當他這樣做時，你會注意。
他現在最擔心的不是通貨膨脹。這不是A。這甚至不是地緣政治混亂。
這是美國的財政政策。
美國去年的赤字為1.83萬億美元。這比收入多出1.83萬億美元。
今年呢？政府有望實現 1.9 萬億美元的赤字。
即使在經濟繁榮時期，美國也像醉酒的水手一樣借貸。僅利息支付就呈爆炸式增長——現在是僅次於社會保障的第二大政府支出。
這意味著我們不僅負債累累。我們負債累累。
正如巴菲特所說：“這是不可持續的。在某些時候，你只是放棄了。
Buffett rarely gets political.
But when he does, you pay attention.
His biggest fear right now isn’t inflation. It’s not AI. It’s not even geopolitical chaos.
It's U.S. fiscal policy.
The U.S. ran a $1.83 trillion deficit last year. That’s $1.83 trillion more in spending than income.
And this year? The government is on track to run a $1.9 trillion deficit.
Even during boom times, the U.S. is borrowing like a drunk sailor. Interest payments alone have exploded — now the second-largest government expense, behind only Social Security.
That means we’re not just in debt. We’re in debt at compounding rates.
As Buffett puts it: “It’s unsustainable. At some point, you just give up.”
巴菲特一直相信美元的強勢。但這種信念正在開始動搖。
“如果我認為美元會下地獄，”他說，“我們就不會持有任何面值的東西。
那不是散佈恐懼。這是對這樣一種觀點的溫和推動，即如果美國不儘快糾正其財政路徑，事情就會出問題。
當它出現時，巴菲特的干火藥就會準備好了。
他不是在押注崩潰。他在押注各種選擇。
Buffett has always believed in the strength of the U.S. dollar. But that belief is starting to fray.
“If I thought the dollar was going to hell,” he said, “we wouldn’t be holding anything denominated in it.”
That’s not fear-mongering. That’s a gentle nudge toward the idea that if America doesn’t course-correct its fiscal path soon, something’s going to break.
And when it does, Buffett’s dry powder will be ready.
He's not betting on collapse. He’s betting on options.
在股東大會結束時，巴菲特拋出了一個重磅炸彈：
“現在是 Greg 成為公司首席執行官的時候了。”
那是伯克希爾哈撒韋能源公司（Berkshire Hathaway Energy）的負責人格雷格·阿貝爾（Greg Abel），也是傳聞已久的巴菲特的繼任者。
人群驚呆了。就連格雷格也不知道。
60 年後，Oracle 正在傳遞火炬。但並沒有消失。
巴菲特將繼續擔任董事長。他仍然會關注市場。仍然準備好在交易出現時猛撲。仍然在那些管理著世界上最大的現金戰爭基金的人耳邊低語。
但不要誤會：
這是巴菲特時代結束的開始。
At the end of the shareholder meeting, Buffett dropped a bombshell:
“The time has arrived where Greg should become the Chief Executive Officer of the company.”
That’s Greg Abel, head of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and Buffett’s long-rumored successor.
The crowd was stunned. Even Greg didn’t know.
After 60 years, the Oracle is passing the torch. But not disappearing.
Buffett will stay on as Chairman. He’ll still be watching the markets. Still ready to pounce when deals appear. Still whispering in the ears of those who manage the world’s largest war chest of cash.
But make no mistake:
This is the beginning of the end of the Buffett era.
你不需要成為沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）就能明白發生了什麼。
你只需要研究他的行為。
可選性就是一切。現金並不懶惰。它已載入。當時機成熟時，它發展得很快。
不要追逐。大多數市場都被高估了。真正的錢是通過等待賺來的。
當別人恐懼時，要貪婪。但同時，當別人貪婪時，也要知道什麼時候該害怕。
關注財政政策。美國可以無休止地借款......直到它不能。
瞭解週期。感覺像是頂級的東西很少是。感覺像底部的東西往往不是。
巴菲特是市場心理學的學生，而不僅僅是市場基本原理。
當有史以來最偉大的投資者囤積 3500 億美元，同時對 40,000 名觀眾微笑時？
你最好問問自己：
他知道什麼，而我們不知道呢？
當崩潰真的來臨時......你會是那個驚慌失措的人嗎？
還是準備好的那個人？
您對這個問題的回答將定義您未來十年的財務生活。
明智地選擇。
You don’t need to be Warren Buffett to understand what’s happening.
You just need to study his behavior.
Optionality is everything. Cash isn’t lazy. It’s loaded. And when the time comes, it moves fast.
Don't chase. Most of the market is overvalued. The real money is made by waiting.
Be greedy when others are fearful. But also, know when to be fearful when others are greedy.
Buffett is a student of market psychology, not just market fundamentals.
And when the greatest investor of all time hoards $350 billion while smiling at a crowd of 40,000?
You'd be wise to ask yourself:
What does he know that we don’t?
And when the crash does come… will you be the one who panics?
Or the one who’s ready?
Your answer to that question will define the next decade of your financial life.
Choose wisely.
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